The Formula for Disappointment...

As a long suffering fan of the Sea Eagles I will, no doubt, be disappointed if they lose the NRL Grand Final against the Melbourne Storm this weekend. Will I shake off the loss with a shrug of the shoulders or wallow in self pity for a week? The answer to this question lays not in the result, but in my ability to manage my own expectations. I have therefore developed a mathamatical formula designed to assess the level of disappointment I am likely to suffer:

Value of Opportunity x Level of Desire = Satisfaction Factor/100 > Probability of Success :. Probability/Satisfaction = Level of Disappointment

If the Satisfaction Factor exceeds the Probablity of Success, I will be disappointed if that bunch of cheating Victorians beat my team. The degree of my disappointment can be calculated by dividing the the Probablity of Success (represented in decimal terms) by the Satisfaction Factor - the lower the negative result, the greater the pain and anguish I will suffer - so let's see how it works:

Value of Opportunity - How much is this worth to me in either emotional or material terms? Rated 1 - 10, with 10 representing the higher value to me. Level of Desire - How much do I want this? Rated 1 - 10, with 10 representing the highest level of desire.

Therefore, to calculate the Satisfaction Factor I simply have to multiply the Value of Opportunity by the Level of Desire and then divide that to create a decimal representation. Or in numerical terms (8 x 8)/100 = 0.64

The Sea Eagles have played well all year, but the Storm finished the season as Minor Premiers. Bookmakers have listed the Storm as hot favourites at $2.50 - the Probability of Success when assessing the liklihood of the Sea Eagles winning is probably 50%. So let's see how the final equations looks: (8x8)/100=0.64 > 0.50

Therefore the Level of Disappointment I will experience, should those undeserving, no-necked plodders from the South win, can be demonstrated as (0.50/0.64) = -0.22

Probably best to avoid me on Monday.....